The New Hampshire Primary

This is how the Huff’n’Puff has decided to address tonight. How fitting that they would describe Bernie Sanders that way. I know they were calling out Trump, but you cannot just blanket label a state like that. Didn’t someone tell them that’s racist to call other people racists? I mean yikes, talk about a political correctness violation.

Anyway, was anyone surprised by Donald Trump or Bernie Sanders winning tonight? No I wasn’t. Why? Because New Hampshire is next to the Crazyland of Vermont and the Crazyland of New York. One state has Congressman who advocates taking people’s civil rights away for the sake of security, and the other state advocates taking people’s economic rights away for the sake of equality. In either case, tonight should not be surprising for who won.

What is surprising is that Hillary has lost New Hampshire by so much. Almost 20 points down, that’s not a good loss for her. On the Republican side, John Kasich may have won second place and that’s not surprising, but what is surprising I think for many Washington insiders and establishment lovers is that Ted Cruz is beating Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio, and Chris Christie has handedly lost to Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush.

So here are my thoughts on the Republican Primary:

  1. Ted Cruz is doing strong against Donald Trump, and that should make the Cruz camp energetic and the Trump campaign worried. Trump isn’t similar to Cruz save on social issues like immigration, so the fact that the Social Conservative is taking it to the National Rightist means there is a moment of rationality in the electorate.
  2. John Kasich may be whiny dad, but considering that Chris Christie isn’t acting like the bully anymore and Jeb lacks a personality means he is the best shot for the Establishment crowd. That means they cannot and will not win, and at best, he’ll be a Vice Presidential candidate. No one wants another whiny dad, they didn’t like Lindsey Graham, John MCCain, or Mitt Romney. Why would the American people now choose Kasich?
  3. Marco Rubio has been taken to task for the debate, but Christie failed to generate any momentum and Rubio for being a Warhawk, got 10% out of Pacifist New Hampshire. That means ISIS fears and terror fears are more tangible than many would like, and the Neo-Cons are not winning people’s hearts.

Now onto the Democratic Primary:

  1. Bernie is doing spectacular. He has the momentum from the near-win in Iowa, New Hampshire wasn’t just a rally it was a blowout for him. South Carolina may be a hard fight, but if Bernie can get 40% in Carolina, that means the fears that he cannot win minority votes will be squashed.
  2. Hillary’s campaign has had a series of bad press events recently. One was the Albright and Steinem commentary which received internal and external backlash. Hillary doubled down on their remarks, and I think she took a hit because NH voters saw a woman support ostracizing voters based on gender. Not a smart political move. The second bad event was the FBI finally admitting they were investigating her. Known as DC’s worst-kept secret, the FBI is finally saying they are doing an investigation.
  3. Hillary can recover, but now she has a tough choice. She needs a rally in the South, and a lot of people were pushing Julian Castro as her VP option. But if she needs the South, she needs a Black leader (without credibility or trust issues) to be her VP to sweep Bernie out of the election. If she doesn’t at least show some leanings to that decision and give hard offerings to their communities, her lead is not assured in the Southern states, nor will she keep the Democratic establishment from breaking apart.

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