Super Tuesday Expectations: Polls, People, and Politics Lie

Tomorrow, at least 14 states (and territories) will be casting their delegates for the Presidential candidates. The table below has been gathered from FiveThirtyEight.com looking at Republican and Democrat polls. Additionally, I looked at RealClearPolitics various individual state polling data. While I am naturally skeptical myself at polls, I think a lot of people, and candidates as well, look at polls as something useful. While I disagree, I decided to engage in the fun of speculation, and so looking at the totality of the polling data, here’s what we wind up with.

Poll Summary

You’ll notice that several have asterisks next to them, for instance, American Samoa. American Samoa doesn’t vote in the Republican primary yet, but offers 6 delegates and 4 super-delegates tomorrow. Alaska, Minnesota, and Vermont all have asterisks because the polling data is either inaccurate in my mind, is rather old (before January), or the polling is very small, like with the Vermont polling.

On Colorado and North Dakota, as well as Wyoming, things have happened locally in those districts to make them complicated. North Dakota and Wyoming will not end their primary voting by tomorrow. Meanwhile, Colorado has had this fun story, where GOP leaders in the local area sandbagged a polling screen because as the Denver Post stated:

Instead, the contest for the state’s Republican endorsement is taking place behind the scenes, where volunteers for the candidates are touting neighborhood-level endorsements and emphasizing one-on-one courtship to win commitments from potential delegates.

The state GOP executive committee abolished the presidential straw poll after the national Republican Party required a binding vote. Colorado party leaders wanted to remain uncommitted to a candidate, particularly because they worried that person may not remain in the race by the July convention in Cleveland.

The state moved from the primary system to party caucuses in 2002, but the straw poll vote offered little more than a hit of adrenaline to the winning campaign because it did not necessarily allocate delegates to the top candidate.

“Rather than having to spend a whole lot of dollars advertising, like you would in some other state, your ground game will determine whether you can get delegates in Colorado,” House said.

The presidential campaigns are taking note and leveraging their volunteer leaders in the state to win delegates at the caucuses.

Rubio and Cruz are the most organized in Colorado, although Trump is relying on his national popularity to give him a boost. Kasich and Carson also have dedicated supporters in the state, but both are struggling to rise to the top.

So with the way tomorrow is shaping up, expectations should be low about a revolt against Trump. However, given recent efforts by Cruz and Rubio to take it Trump, perhaps we might see one or two states go to both gentlemen tomorrow. Here’s hoping that something beyond what we should expect (meaning Trump total victory) occurs. Though, the various agents who operate polls (Karl Rove, Nate Silver, etc.) are all pessimistic about a Trump loss in any size.

I expect that some of the data in these polls are skewed by the way the questions and polling were carried out. I would worry that the Trump margin (the area where people feel guilty about voting for Trump, and therefore lie about not voting for him before and after their ballots are cast) will be at least 4%. I think most Trump supporters are hardened, meaning adamantly loyal and unashamed, and would put this about 25% now.

I noticed that last week, candidates Rubio and Cruz took my strategy of ending their friendly fire at one another and “sort of” divided the country to fit their best abilities of pitches and politics. Will it work, and am I the next Republican Evil Genius? I am not optimistic of the chances, but if the miracle begins tomorrow, don’t mind me. I WILL BE GLOATING. I don’t expect the best of people, but I always leave a margin where humanity and my fellow Americans can prove me wrong.

For those interested in seeing the delegate awards for each state tomorrow, click here.

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