Recently, I have been advocating that in order to stop Trump as the presumptive nominee, the candidates in the race would have to confront Trump, fight Trump, prevent friendly fire, and move on to their respective best territories and win. Last night held to this theory and it WORKED. I am gloating, if even for a moment, because the strategy succeeded. Trump did not win everything last night, he lost in four places and if given another week, he probably would have lost Virginia and Vermont. So let’s recap what happened in each state. The data I am using is the information put out on the Washington Post Live Update for the Primaries. Usually consistent, a little ahead of Fox News, and you can even click on the states to see which counties went which way.
Late in the night, most of you probably didn’t even know it was on Super Tuesday with the way the news reports things. But it was and it held an opportunity for Trump the most because he had Sarah Palin early on supporting his campaign, and early on it looked swell for Donald Trump. But apparently, Ted Cruz won hearts and minds after being there in the last couple of years and Palin’s endorsement did not hold the gravitas many expected. Ted Cruz won 36.4% to Trump 33.5%. Rubio was a weak third with 15.1% of the vote in Alaska.
Ted Cruz has come to Oklahoma many times in recent weeks, not surprising to locals he would get at least second there. But after stopping in Tulsa and Oklahoma City for rallies, and getting the endorsement of Congressman Jim Bridenstine, they young Representative for Tulsa. Additionally, Cruz has family and friends in Oklahoma, so his grassroots effort was fairly strong on the ground there. The shock here comes in the point deficit between him and Donald Trump. Cruz won with 34.4% of the vote last night, compared to Donald’s 28.3%, and Rubio not trailing by much at 26%.
Senator of Texas, Ted Cruz is a very popular man in the area here. The real frustration here was not to Donald, a lot of people expected Ted to take his home state. It’s very Conservative, and while pro-outsider, it doesn’t like New York businessmen. The shock came when two things happened: Cruz couldn’t get close to 50%, meaning the state went proportional, but he and Trump took enough of the vote, and the Carson-Kasich feeding did as well, as to prevent Rubio from getting the necessary 20% to earn any delegates from Texas. So only Trump and Cruz got delegates here and it created a peak of momentum for Trump to argue, “even in a hostile land, I don’t do poorly.” Cruz had 43.8% of the vote and Trump had 26.8%. Texas has a minimum and maximum for the primary, where you need 20% to get into the proportional spread, but if someone hits 50%, they win it ALL.
Trump got third here. Yes, THIRD. Minnesota, which is *cough* extremely liberal *cough* is a surprising win for Cruz and Rubio, given the nature of Trump’s non-conservative, non-Republican, Republican-primary run. Given his leniency towards gay marriage, abortion, and taxation, you would think Minnesota would strongly lean on him. But last night, we’ll call this a reaction to Venturism, a reference to Jesse Ventura, a now-conspiracy theorist, but former governor. There is a large segment of the Midwest that listens to conspiracy radio and I think a lot of the Minnesotas personally dislike the Alex Jones-InfoWars perspective on Conspiracy, aka Big Government hates us, so let’s destroy it. Rather Minnesotas seem inclined towards the anarcho-communalism of David Icke and Free Love Revolution.
]Why does this matter? Alex Jones has been stumping HARD for Trump, meaning he created an alienation against Trump in the hearts and minds of Minnesotans. He has attacked Rubio as a gay partyboy and Cruz as a filthy Goldman-Sachs puppet. I won’t justify these attacks, I think they are abhorrent, but thanks to them occurring, I think Minnesota revolted against all the repugnant behavior of the Conspiracy Right. So Rubio, the most attacked by Alex Jones, received 36.8% and Cruz received 28.9%. Trump was under 20% in Minnesota, hence my argument. Combining Liberal Country with Conspiracy Politics is ugly and hard to understand, but for those like me, who delve into this muck, it’s amusing.
Arkansas, Vermont and Virginia
For Trump supporters, this are the states you are worried about, these are the stress-points in the general election for you. Sure we all know Vermont will vote Democrat, it’s Crazyland. But Kasich lost by 2 points last night to Donald Trump, meaning that Vermont will handedly choose something not Trump, and that paints an image of the liberalism in New England in general. While Vermont doesn’t paint the picture, it does at least give background noise. If Vermont has moved so left that Trump cannot win big here, it means that New York, Massachusetts, New Hampshire will all probably go Democrat. Vermont politics infects all those states, and if Kasich can have such a presence in it despite being effectively campaign-dead, then New England is likely to not support any hardline-conservative.
Arkansas was another narrow win for Trump, with him edging Cruz out by 2%. Again, this is a thread he thought he had locked down, aka the Bible Belt and the Socially Conservative, Christian Right. But if you look at the county map of Arkansas, where there is significant population, Trump lost last night. Not even the city counties (won by Rubio) but those surrounding counties were where Cruz picked up his support. He may have the general population of Arkansas, but in the general election, this suggests that the Democrats may take the state rather than him. Trump would need to hard-sell his campaign and hope that not too many anti-Trump Republicans stay home. I should note that Rubio had 25% of the vote here, so the delegates were doled out fairly evenly here.
Virginia was also close, though Trump won by 3% here instead of 2%. He edged out Rubio in this state. While most of the state is for Trump, and could be a good sign, the margin he lost to Rubio in DC counties and other Rubio-loyalist areas could indicate some troubles ahead for the Trump. If Trump becomes the nominee, I would expect that Virginia as a swing-state would be ugly, but eventually wind up being Democrat do to the strength with which Rubio won certain DC counties. Considering the signficant population in those areas, their influence in the general needs to be monitored and fought hard in.
The Strategy Going Forward
Well the next states we march to in the Republican campaign season are: March 5 (Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, and Maine); March 6 (Puerto Rico); March 8 (Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi); March 12 (DC and Guam); March 15 (Florida, ILLINOIS, Missouri, North Carolina, Northern Marianas, and Ohio).
Obviously the news wants us to hype on SUPER SUPER TUESDAY, blame Fox News’ Bret Baier and Bill Hemmer for this. But there are pockets of delegates between 1st of March and the 15th and plenty of opportunities for Cruz and Rubio, but also Carson and Kasich to serve as spoilers. Clearly Maine is Kasich country, and it’s a good opportunity for him to win, though Rubio might serve as a spoiler. I think Carson could do the same spoiling to Cruz in Kentucky and Kansas, and I expect a tight three-man race in Louisiana. Back on February 5th, Bobby Jindal threw his weight behind Marco Rubio, giving Rubio a serious chance there on the 5th.
If Divide and Conquer is to succeed, the lesser candidates to Trump need to not cannibalize too much one another’s voices and votes. If Trump is to win, he needs surrogates and massive rallies in each state in the next four days. Additionally, on the 15th, Ohio and Florida are winner-take-all, meaning that Rubio and Kasich NEED to win their states in order to not throw the election to Trump.
Christie Speculation and Thoughts from Others
Rush Limbaugh put out a piece on Trump momentum that I think everyone who hates Trump, dislikes Trump, has promised to not vote for Trump, or believes Trump to be a nasty supremacist SHOULD READ. Please realize that Trump momentum is real, it’s powerful, and it’s not a monolith anymore. Get your head out of the DC mentality and look at the heartland. This ain’t a soft protest against the establishment, it’s a full-on REVOLT. Hey look, Lindsey Graham thinks its Cruz or Bust because Hillary will kill Trump. Laughable, but look at the Old Guard force themselves to support the Tea Party. MWHAHAHAHAHAHA
So what of the entertainment of last night, when we all saw Chris Christie realized he had embraced the devil and regret it? Do we expect that Christie jumped ship so early simply to be Attorney General of El Presidente Trump, or perhaps he wants to be Vice Presidente. In either case, enjoy this last image, provided by the internet, do the constant funny faces of Christie in that Press Conference.