Yesterday’s Infograph for Today’s Primaries

Yesterday, I introduced this infograph while talking about the alliance of Cruz and Kasich, which I think is doomed to hurt Cruz more than help him. However, let’s just talk about the infograph itself. On the image above is each of the remaining states yet to cast ballots or delegates for a candidate in the GOP Primary. However, I will explain further the coloring put on the original infograph, as a way to highlight why there are critical issues present for those in #NEVERTRUMP and how they need to address said issues, I will not entail. That’s not my problem or my prerogative, that’s their space.

RCP Remaining StatesThe image above has been edited from yesterday.
This was taken from RealClearPolitics Delegate page.

What is my space is how the polling data is examined, which has taken an interesting turn in quality is looking. For instance, each of the blue’d state squares under Trump have had LV polls done, which are a greater reality depiction when it comes to polls than say when a poll uses RV people instead. What is LV? It stands for LIKELY VOTER and symbolizes the gap between those who actually determine the election and the general population that could vote, who are called REGISTERED VOTERS, or RV for short. Here’s an explanation Gallup gives for how it determines a “LIKELY VOTER”.

In any case, the blue’d states are those that have had Likely Voter polling data that critically favors Trump (he is winning by 10 points or more). The green colored blocks under Trump are those states which have had no polling data, have had old polling data that cannot be used because candidates are referenced who are no longer running, or states that have too close of a margin (like Indiana) to immediately declare Trump’s. That being said, Indiana is up 6 points for Trump in the last spurt of poling data.

Like previously detailed, the Red states are part of the current Kasich-Cruz compromise for thwarting Trump, but they are not easy to write-off as winnable for the non-Trump candidates. New Mexico should favor Kasich because of Trump’s harsh anti-immigration stances, and Oregon for Trump’s rhetoric on abortion. But if that holds out is yet to be seen by any polling. As for the states being decided today though, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island, none are in play today. What is in play today is how badly Trump beats Cruz and Kasich in the actual election.

If Trump won through some machination, just half of the delegates today, he would be at 931 after tonight. However, if FiveThirtyEight’s assessment of the Trump-mentum has been correct so far and holds steady, then Trump’s gains in New England will make up for losses he has taken in the Midwest and Southern states. They assume he needs 97 to be on target tonight, just 11 north of the halfway mark. Which isn’t that hard to reach when Trump has traditionally won more than the target FiveThirtyEight estimates for him in Northeastern States. Do you see this prediction of expectations as realistic or are you believing/knowing/hoping that it is false?


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