This past weekend was Dad and Grandma’s birthdays. March 5th.
I haven’t been able to say much on it because I worked this weekend, doing what God has called me to do in the days since Dad’s passing, through Grandma’s passing.
But this short and short-worded song hits a strong feeling that resides in me still.
The world’s need for a Churchill-like figure. I had thought about sitting on this until we actually saw Russian tanks rolling into Donbas, but the way the press conference with the National Security Advisor and Press Secretary went, I think at least making my peace before the end is important for me, and maybe for anyone who is worried about this playing out. These words are my own, and do not represent any organization or employer.
Continue readingAround this time 5 years ago, in the midst of a depressive slump that I could not escape from, I took a chance on an offer from a friend to look into his agency in the federal government. By April, I had done the introduction interview and had a conditional offer of employment. I was doing my last op-eds and my last TV spots with the Public Square. I wasn’t sure what the direction of my life should be because I realized I had built my political ambition on my father’s affirmation, and not so much my own ambition and will. I needed time away from politics to recover my will, my views, and to think about how, if ever, I entered American politics, I would do so.
Honestly when I took this job in 2017, I wasn’t sure it was what I wanted to do. The hands of God were clearly directing me towards this position, and everything else as an option in my life fell away as an alternative. Part of it was my inability to see a direction and make a confident step in that direction, but I know my mother often points out that when she starts to pray that God not do something, because it is what she wants, God takes me in a direction she can’t deny and avoid, despite what her heart wants. In a similar way, I never imagined entering government in this way, and not for a lack of qualification, but because I was told from 2013-2015 that my life and work experiences would deny me access.
I do not think it is a point of braggartry to admit that it took a total denial of everything I was at the moment in 2015 to take this choice. It was in my eyes at the time, an entire betrayal of what I had tried to be up to 2015. In reality, my heart needed to learn the humility of my position. The reverence I speak of in regard to Arlington, has been deepened by my job today. These days, I do not consider myself a gladful and willing warnhawk. I view the American Empire as as a necessity in a world with growing chaos. The isolation politically of the last four years has been helpful in making sure I view the data of the world and its condition with open eyes. That my heart was made open and willing to see things I would not have 5 years ago. The experience of working in government is clearly foundational to the future I have. For what purpose, I claim no knowledge of. That is the experience of my faith and walk in life, I take choices because they are the only ones, the obvious ones, the ones I cannot deny. But why they are such a door is entirely unknown to me until I reach for the door knobs.
The reason why it has been 5 years of patience has been about retraining my faith to be one built on not knowing the path, but knowing that the destination is one of necessity and will show a clear value to my purpose. Meaning, it does not matter how I get to where I do in any given major moment, what matters is that I made it to those moments. My faith is built on an awareness that if I knew the plan, my self-esteem and lack of confidence might sabotage it. So while I can get prescient about political realities, I can call elections fairly easily, and I can talk to a universal American view without partisanship, it does not mean I anticipated being in that position, or being aware I could think this way.
Here’s to the next 5 years of patience. Do I want it? Not really, I hate being tested like this. I hate not knowing the plan, the goal, the destination. I hate being led along without a condition of knowing when I’m powerful and powerless. But this is the path of faith I walk. One in which I seemingly walk with purpose and faith, but in reality I walk blind into the void of the future because if I saw the future with my own eyes, I might decide that delusion rather than reality.
Today I love what I do. I love how I’ve been able to directly help keep troops alive and out of danger. I hate it absolutely and break down when soldiers die outside of my watch. The hardest job day for me came in 2019 the weekend I was driving home, when soldiers I was working with were ambushed in Afghanistan and killed. I was literally driving home to help mom, and I had interacted with their unit before taking off for the extended leave of absence. I have never felt a greater gulf of debt in a moment than that, when I wondered for what seemed forever, if I had failed or caused their death by placing my family first. But as the press reported the details, I realized I couldn’t do anything. AND I HATED REALIZING THAT EVEN NOW, I AM POWERLESS ON MY OWN AGAINST DEATH.
I cannot express how much the powerlessness against Death has defined much of my world view these last 5 years. I know I can’t overcome it, but I can do everything in my power to fight it. It is an inevitable foe, but it is not unbeatable foe in any given moment. It may win one day, but I would rather give our boys and girls in the field the choice of when Death comes rather than let enemies, foreign and domestic, decide when that end comes. Even now, I take death personally. How can I not? It is a weapon of the enemy to not rob life, but to break down the lives left behind. Death is not used against its victim, but against the loved ones and friends of the victim. It is weapon against the collateral, the remainder.
How can I not hate such a weapon, that strikes worst the civilians left in its wake? It is why I struggle every day to help keep people alive. I know Death is an invincible foe, but for just one moment, I want to stop the damage it does on families left in its wake. As a victim of Death’s wake, I carry this grudge for an eternity. How can I not? I saw what it did on December 11, 2015. It did not attack my father’s soul, no it was used to attack my mother’s and my souls through his death. What misery is a weapon that does not strike the worst weapon on its target, but the collateral around it? A nuke. Death is a nuclear weapon, an atrocity weapon in our spiritual lives. We cannot live in fear of its wake, but we must be aware it is being used daily. We cannot disarm the weapon, but we can be ready to help the survivors every time it goes off.
I know since 2015, mom and I have repeatedly had to be spiritual responders to the nuclear disaster of death. Those who have been burned by Death’s flames know best how deep those burns go into us. That’s why this song has been an anthem of mine since the first day I heard it. This is the windmill I have come to tilt at, the windmill of Death. Wherever I see its wake, I try to rush in and help those left behind. I will not let another soul suffer alone through that.
I’m writing this because Death has been a strong foe this last year and a growing number of people I know are feeling the sting of it. You will never hear me utter “you should be okay by now.” I know full well the wake of Death is life-lasting, even when we think we are over it, it consumes us from time to time. I just want you to know that you are not alone. I will pray with you, I will have a phone call, chat with you, Discord, Google Hangout, whatever it takes to make sure you understand that you are not alone in this crisis.
I have a ritual when I used to fly in the before COVID time. I would always play Fergie’s “Glamorous” as I would take off into the sky. It began when I was flying home when Mom, Dad, and I were struggling to get by while I was in grad school and the year after I graduated. Back then, it was to remind me that I am not in the place RIGHT NOW that I am supposed to be in, but I am in the exact moment I am supposed to be in. Meaning this isn’t the destination of my life, but part of the journey.
The worst day for me was December 11th, 2015. When I played that song on the airplay, I already knew that I was going to see my father one last time. I knew Dad was dying based on what Mom and Cody, my best friend and brother in life, told me. As the song played, I cried heavily and explained to the stewardess what was happening. She handed me a ginger ale and vodka (because I asked for the ginger ale). The song initially details a life of success but being surrounded by such pure negativity that sometimes you go home because your broke, whether you take it to me financially broke or spiritually, mentally, and emotionally broke, it fits.
I played it the night I flew back. The Stewardess was the same one I dealt with that night, and she handed me another Ginger Ale and Vodka and asked if Dad’s funeral was hard. I told her of course emotionally, but Dad was never one to let Mom be alone. So even in his unwillingness to prepare for death, he made sure Mom was secured for life and his funeral paid for. Dad was never going to let Mom cry if he could help it, and he would’ve never tolerated leaving her nothing to handle the debts they had. But I wasn’t, I am still not, and I will never be prepared for burying my father.
On December 11th, we watched him die. I saw the maw of death from his body being marred to try and save his life. I watched a man I respected, I sought wisdom from, and a godly man I sought to be like die. But the thing that I always remember, that I have always said is that it was clear Dad had a content life. His death was a struggle for him until Mom let him know we were okay, and if he needed to go to God, it would be okay. We could make it. In an immediate flash, he was gone. But he was gone because he was content and he heard the words to know his contentment was right. He had done everything God needed him to do to guarantee Mom’s blessing in life and future. And the anger and humility the situation brought me over the next year was necessary. I don’t think before Dad’s death I would have ever listened to Mr. Steve Gibson the night he told me he had an idea for my future.
Prior to that January night, I never thought I had a place in government other than running for office. I was blinded by what I thought the end was I forgot the journey existed. I am grateful to Mr. Gibson being a friend in our mutual loss of fathers that season, and the kindness he granted me by talking to me. It’s a lesson that I think no one wants but everyone in that crisis needs. That it is okay to move on and live life. Not to get over it, but to get through it. We will never get over December 11th, me and Mom. But we are getting through it.
Without that government job, when the Enemy came for me on April 18th, 2019, even if I had survived, I would’ve been saddled with immense debt. When Mom’s knees started failing her, the government job meant I had money to come home, and good enough money that if I couldn’t get leave, I could make it through. And that government job was such a blessing that both times I came home to help Mom, I never had to struggle. God has continued to pour blessing upon blessing on me. I KNOW THIS IS THE JOURNEY. I know this isn’t the destination, but I can’t refute the evidence. CONSISTENTLY I cannot escape that the Architect of the Universe is blessing me, God is guiding me, and the Divine Hand of Providence continues to get me through the crises of my life.
It’s why I write of being Daniel in these last four years. I cannot escape my fate. I was called to honor my words to friends and family about being a Daniel to Nebuchadnezzar. God saw my heart and tested me, I answered in crisis “is there anything else I can do?” 5 years later, I continue to be surprised by what I have been given, what I do for a living, and what good I can accomplish in my position.
This job not only blesses me financially and for family. It is helping me clear the burden of guilt I had. For years, I wrestled with being the military hawk in my friends, and yet several of my friends are serving or have served the country. I always hated that the best I could do was shout at Congress from the outside and write letters. Sure I got responses, but were they responses to me or the moment? But now, I am in a position where it’s my duty to make sure men and women get home alive. The fulfillment of my guilt is immense and cannot be discounted. There have been plenty of days where this job eats at me for politics and the tasks we do, some of the things we see and know. But in the back of my head, I remember constantly that while I couldn’t be there for Guppy, Cody, Will, and others when they might’ve needed me, men and women will not be left behind by me. I will do everything in my power to make sure they get home.
That’s the glamorous life. Not the diamonds and hours, not the pay and leave. It’s the blessing of knowing my actions are not taking life but saving it. That my hands typing and eyes seeing have made sure wicked monsters have paid and the weak and innocent have been spared. You cannot take that glamorous feeling from me. Forever in my heart, I know I have done the right thing and that will never disappear. I don’t have Dad’s contentment yet, but I have found the first thing Dad told me after “if you have trouble, come home. Mom and I will always love you.”
“Find your joy Michael. Life is much easier when you know what you are doing matters and it has worth. If you can cement your joy in what you do, people’s words and intents mean nothing. It’s why God calls us to action over words. A life without action is death.”
My Daddy told me so. He let His Son know.
I have since this current President took office, adopted the view that should God call me to, that I would serve in the government to protect my country and its people. A journey of 4 years alongside this man, this King who seeks to make himself god on Earth to his followers and to himself. I have written long on the narcissism of Great King Nebuchadnezzar and how my convictions compel me to the government despite my protests and complaints with his behavior, his decorum…NO his very existence. Truly a complication when the King I am forced to serve is beyond wicked in my eyes, and what I would read from my Scripture. But my obligation is not to my want, but the heart I give to God. I embrace that I serve the country, not a King, and regardless of the King, I will endeavor to protect this country. Like the few police who were deployed today tried. Despite all odds and given no chance of success, they held their ground and protected the Electoral College ballots, the Congress itself, and the Vice President who refused to conduct himself extra-constitutionally.
Today was the culmination of many realizations about why God has put me in this position. I am a heart that does not give up easily. I have bartered like Jonah, I have complained like Job, I have tried to lament my very state like David, but in the end, God heard my words and made me eat them. I have become Daniel. I do God’s work and the work to protect my country and her people, but I do not have to love that King. His objectives, the temporal ones, were not wholly wrong in my view and even after his debauchery of self, I will hold them. The Empire has needs it must address and we must pray a Cyrus delivers to us those changes. I do not know if the next King will be Cyrus, but I know right now we do not have that Great King…we have Nebuchadnezzar.
For a time, many have complained about me lashing Nebuchadnezzar to the current President, as if disparaging either man. To be fair, both men are arrogant, egotistical, narcissistic, and mocking towards God. How fitting to compare them to each other? Here is Daniel Chapter 4, what I think is a fulfilling and important Scripture for these last 4 years and for today in particular.
I, Nebuchadnezzar, was at home in my palace, content and prosperous. I had a terrifying dream as I lay in bed, and the images and my visions frightened me. So I issued a decree that all the wise men of Babylon should be brought before me to give the interpretation of the dream. When the magicians, enchanters, Chaldeans, and diviners had come in, I related the dream before them; but none of them could tell me its meaning. Finally there came before me Daniel, whose name is Belteshazzar after the name of my god, and in whom is a spirit of the holy gods. I repeated the dream to him:
“Belteshazzar, chief of the magicians, I know that a spirit of the holy gods is in you and no mystery is too difficult for you; this is the dream that I saw, tell me its meaning. These were the visions I saw while in bed: I saw a tree of great height at the center of the earth. It was large and strong, with its top touching the heavens, and it could be seen to the ends of the earth. Its leaves were beautiful, its fruit abundant, providing food for all. Under it the wild beasts found shade, in its branches the birds of the air nested; all flesh ate of it. In the vision I saw while in bed, a holy watcher came down from heaven and cried aloud in these words:
‘Cut down the tree and lop off its branches,
strip off its leaves and scatter its fruit;
Let the beasts flee from beneath it, and the birds from its branches,
but leave its stump in the earth.
Bound with iron and bronze,
let him be fed with the grass of the field
and bathed with the dew of heaven;
let his lot be with the beasts in the grass of the earth.
Let his mind be changed from a human one;
let the mind of a beast be given him,
till seven years pass over him.
By decree of the watchers is this proclamation,
by order of the holy ones, this sentence;
That all who live may know
that the Most High is sovereign over human kingship,
Giving it to whom he wills,
and setting it over the lowliest of mortals.’This is the dream that I, King Nebuchadnezzar, had. Now, Belteshazzar, tell me its meaning. None of the wise men in my kingdom can tell me the meaning, but you can, because the spirit of the holy gods is in you.”
Then Daniel, whose name was Belteshazzar, was appalled for a time, dismayed by his thoughts. “Belteshazzar,” the king said to him, “do not let the dream or its meaning dismay you.”
“My lord,” Belteshazzar replied, “may this dream be for your enemies, and its meaning for you foes. The tree that you saw, large and strong, its top touching the heavens, that could be seen by the whole earth, its leaves beautiful, its fruit abundant, providing food for all, under which the wild beasts lived, and in whose branches the birds of the air dwelt–you are that tree, O king, large and strong! Your majesty has become so great as to touch the heavens, and your rule reaches to the ends of the earth. As for the king’s vision of a holy watcher, who came down from heaven and proclaimed: ‘Cut down the tree and destroy it, but leave its stump in the earth. Bound with iron and bronze, let him be fed with the grass of the field, and bathed with the dew of heaven; let his lot be the wild beasts till seven years pass over him’–here is its meaning, O king, here is the sentence that the Most High has passed upon my lord king:
You shall be cast out from human society and dwell with the wild beasts; you shall be given grass to eat like an ox and be bathed with the dew of heaven; seven years shall pass over you, until you know that the Most High is sovereign over human kingship and gives it to whom he will. The command that the stump of the tree is to be left means that your kingdom shall be preserved for you, once you have learned that heaven is sovereign. Therefore, O king, may my advice be acceptable to you; atone for your sins by good deeds, and for your misdeeds by kindness to the poor; then your contentment will be long lasting.”
All this happened to King Nebuchadnezzar. Twelve months later, as he walking on the roof of the royal palace in Babylon, the king said, “Babylon the great! Was it not I, with my great strength, who built it as a royal residence for my splendor and majesty?”
While these words were still on the king’s lips, a voice spoke from heaven, “It has been decreed for you, King Nebuchadnezzar, that your kingship is taken from you! You shall be cast out from human society, and shall dwell with wild beasts; you shall be given grass to eat like an ox, and seven years shall pass over you, until you learn that the Most High is sovereign over human kingship and gives it to whom he will.”
At once this was fulfilled, Nebuchadnezzar was cast out from human society, he ate grass like an ox, and his body was bathed with the dew of heaven, until his hair grew like the feathers of an eagle, and his nails like the claws of a bird.
Daniel 4: 1-30; the omission of the end is reserved for a day when Trump is repentant of his conduct, his mocking of faith and believers, his flagrant disregard for decency, and when he sets aside his belief that he is God himself. Perhaps that day will come. I cannot speak for Trump’s soul. That is between him and God.
If Trump had listened to his good advisers, his real associates who wanted him to succeed and do right by America, Trump would be President, and this conduct of enabling outlandish, insurrectionist, terrorist behavior would not occur. But Trump does not care to listen to wise words and the magicians around him. He pushed the Nationalists out, then the Populists, then the Conservatives he mocked; finally left with the Old Guard, he was shocked when in his arrogance, they resoundingly kicked him off his throne this evening. He has burned every bridge, and was left with the arsonists and insurrectionists who want to do violence and pretend they grandstand for Jesus while literally calling for those they hate to be placed on Death’s Hill.
There is forgiveness at the end of this road if the man seeks it. Between him and God, any person can be redeemed and aid the collective hope of humanity. But that’s incumbent on the heart of the person. A heart that rejects others, does not concede even in bitter defeat, inspires hostility to process and games they lose, is not a heart seeking to love others. it is at best a heart at war.
Given enough time, I am sure I will come to disregard the next President as accomplishing something of merit. But for now, all of my heart aches with my fellow citizens who watched our Republic be attacked today, by those who hated that they were the minority. The attacked the institutions they failed to take, when they failed to have a message for more than a minority of Americans. And even this group does not represent the collective minority. They are a minority of a minority. But their actions were dangerous and should not be taken lightly or easily forgiven.
There is a meme that goes around during difficult periods in human history.
Easy times foster weak people
Weak people bring about hard times
Hard times foster strong people
Strong people bring about easy times
It has been 5 years since my father’s death. Even now I still feel the weight of his loss in me. Every day I have thoughts of “who can I ask this of when Dad isn’t here?” I’m not sure there is an answer to that question. God is the proverbial fill-in, but from a human element, I have no need or want for a replacement father figure, but at the same time, every man I encounter says things my Dad already said. The reality is that my Dad’s short life and the words he used, fill me with more than enough confidence and strength. I don’t want to admit it at times, and I would like to imagine if he was here, I would receive even greater strength. But I was blessed to have a father who sought to raise me and uplift me, to be better than him in life and success.
When I think on Eric Prydz’s NOPUS, I find myself thinking on the journey of 2020 a lot. In January, when COVID caused Wuhan to shutdown, I pulled family and friends aside and tried to warn them of what was coming. People don’t close cities of 8 Million if nothing is wrong.
In January, when the bastard Qassim Soleimani died at the hands of the US Strike, I know fears were stoked of World War III. I had to encourage a lot of people that WAR was not about to start, that the decisions made were not one of insanity but necessity, and that our adversaries were not the insanity we spin them to be.
In March, when my workplace sent us all home, I had a crisis in what I was going to do. I had been working on COVID as a subject, and it had fatigued my soul but it was good work. I was trying to save lives and the pandemic literally stopped information flowing. It shut our society down, and continues to try and do so.
In May, the Pentagon declassified files on UFO, with a presentation that came off as “we need the American people and the world’s help. We do not know what these are, we cannot explain them, but we are in a crisis of technological inferiority compared to these.”
In May, as the tensions of lockdowns were driving us insane and keeping us home, as more of were watching the parts of society still functioning and unraveling, we watched the brutality of a man die without mercy and without compassion from his fellow men. We heard stories of a woman being brutally killed because she and her partner decided to defend their homes, as lawful gun owners have the right to do so. We were rightfully incensed and driven to the street, in spite of COVID.
Throughout the summer, we watched our leader decide it was better to do show-ops than address the grievances of both the downtrodden and the concern about rising crime. The drug crisis is still in full effect, as COVID caused suicides, domestic abuse, and murder to increase in our society.
When the insane, nuclear like explosion in Beirut happened in August, I remember getting questions about what that strike was. What would that do to world stability, was it terrorism, was it war, was it an accident? The brutality and loss of life was a 9/11 in the hearts of many, a feeling you will never eliminate. A visceral image you cannot escape. It spun fears of war and explosions elsewhere. I told people then that it was likely corruption that was the cause, the thing we never want to hear. Today the government of Lebanon continues to reckon with the corruption that brought about that tragedy.
With all this tension, we told ourselves election night was going to be hell. With the expedited appointment of a 6th Conservative justice, many felt like their ability to affect change in the country was seized from them. And yet, the election occurred. Leaders failed, at a local, state, and federal level, to properly address concerns of voter suppression and possible fraud. People accused each other of cheating, scoundrel, and chicanery.
Here we are, on the edge of the 2nd (3rd) COVID wave. Winter is coming. We’ve been told the Darkest Winter of our lives is approaching. The leaders who have routinely failed warn us that they will fail us in Winter as well. That we should not trust them to see us through.
And yet Operation Warp Speed, the policy decision the former President can take to the bank for his life, has seemed to turn the corner on COVID. A vaccine is in sight, three different options before us, and each one seems strongly viable. As we leave November and enter December 2020, and we tell ourselves all these concerns we have, look back on this year and be thankful.
We have lost friends, family, loved ones we hold dear. Through the worst moments of 2020, you still stand. No matter how weak and feeble, no matter how durable and reliable, you stand with humanity. The future can be bleak, but I would like to imagine as your local resident insane optimist of individuals and cynic of mobs, we’ve come more than a few miles as a species. We faced an exceptionally hard time.
It’s not over, and we aren’t celebrating yet. But the year is in sight. The finish line is in front of us. I ask, like I did in March, May, July, August, November, and in the future, to embrace life. To embrace each other, to cry NO to the pressure of this moment. Humanity it feels is on the edge of a decade of joy, I know it seems strange to say. But I really feel like with what we’ve all gone through in 2020, 2021 will not be the miles-long trek in the dark. We’ve come to realize we need each other. The technology of our society once drove us away from each other, COVID forced us to wake up and realize we need each other.
I pray for you all. I know in the darkest moments, it may seem you are weak, you are lagging, that the end is in sight. But in this moment, join me o the precipice and shout into the void “NOT NOW”. We will not go quietly into that good night, we will not go without a fight. I know Dad would encourage us all that the best is right around the corner, and until my death, I will stare death and hell in the face. SMILING, bold in my faith and proud of all who I know, that we’ve come this far and not let our base instincts, fears, and passions kill us.
The Lord bless you and keep you;
May the Lord cause His face to shine upon you and be gracious to you;
may the Lord lift up HIs countenance toward you and give you peace.
Numbers 6: 24-26
January, May, August, and November 2020.
Good Morning All,
I know it’s late, but I wanted to give you the most recent information so you can have a proper expectation for tomorrow.
The above Excel file features the Early Voting and Total Voting from 2016, and the current Early Vote tallies out of the states. You’ll notice there’s not a consistent trend about which states are early or not in their count, or which states have eclipsed voter turnout in 2016. That being said, the current voter count by most places I’ve seen puts Early Voting at under 100 Million voters, meaning that if the election has a worst turnout than 2016, you should only really expect to see 30 to 40 Million Americans voting tomorrow.
I am skeptical of a blue wave or red tide holding ground. I feel like the landslide narrative is dangerous and has been peddled by both sides so hard, it has made taking a close election likely a bitter pill to swallow for whoever loses tomorrow.
My betting view is 45-55 Biden, in terms of % chance to win. I think Biden has the ability to say he’s not Trump, he’s likeable on a personal level, and he’s interested in getting back into things Obama pushed. Trump’s biggest strength is his weakness, and that’s his polarizing charisma. If Trump has maintained but not grown his base, he’s not likely to win tomorrow. The elaborate efforts he went into to disenfranchise people against a universal mail-in approach, instead of forcing a standardization to make universal mail-in credible, may turn against him as COVID looms on the minds of all.
That being said, Trump could win and the map below features the last polls on RealClearPolitics and who has the moment in the states according to polls.
If you need something silly or a moment of brevity, here’s a silly video from April this year after Doom Eternal and Animal Crossing: Horizons came out on the same day.
In the end, regardless of who wins, I promise you one thing. I will continue to call you friends, family, and acquaintances. You will not see me complaining about the election being rigged, unfair, or a biased game. You will not see me declare my enemies and adversaries as fellow Americans. The enemies at our gates are the Chinese, Iranians, and Russians, not each other.
The next 79 days may in fact be “79 Days of Hell” for folks. Do your absolute best to love your neighbor, love your family, and embrace life. Cling to your faith or your reason, but do not cling to vengeance or bitterness, anger or pettiness.
So I took the opportunity to review all the polls currently out for states, going from August to the present.
I’m going to attach an Excel Doc here and you all can take a look at it.
I color coded the states based on their current leaning, and the factor of precedence on the voters.
Good Afternoon Everyone,
I got a creative bump and I am doing this for the fun of it. I am very critical of a lot of polling data, often concerned they are meant to make you think the rest of the population thinks a certain way, rather than actually conveying what your fellow Americans think. The link below is an Excel file of me taking data from July and August from RCP, using all the polls released on a state level, and highlighting various cells a different color to convey different things.
A red cell is a red flag for me when looking at polling data, such as:
These red flags do not tell any useful information. The Margin of Error is especially important since most political scientists use 95% thresholds, which if you talk to some scientists is fine or NOT GOOD ENOUGH. In my view, it’s an acceptable threshold because voters are not rational. Respondents today cannot be seen as holding that response through election day. Not that everyone will change their mind, but you cannot presume to know the human mind.
Anyway the data below is Wisconsin and Florida. What I want to call out is that Florida data seems very unreliable. *Not a shock, most Americans do not view Florida voters as rational actors* But even with Wisconsin, you’ll see me orange-lining several polls, despite what might seem like only 1 red flag. I cannot explain this enough, in 2016, I orange-lined all polls with even one red flag. It’s a high bar, but that high bar gave me a 55% chance of Trump winning then. At the time, friends, family, and strangers mocked me and laughed at my data.
You have every right to process this and reject it. But if I was either candidate, I would not presume “we’re going to win” or “the other candidate has no chance”. This election could be a fight, and an ugly one at that. Remember that China and Russia want us to make this election personal, to hate each other for the future result. Regardless of who wins, I will continue to serve in my position, be proud of my country and my fellow Americans. I hope you join me in resisting the urge to destroy one another, like our adversaries want us to do.
-Michael McKinney
The title of this blog post is based on a song I heard driving back from home in January. The Iranians were shooting at us, I was wondering if we were going to war, and what that would do with my job. And then this song played on XM’s BPM channel. It made the 7 weeks I had spent with Mom suddenly more impactful. This song isn’t about me, it’s the song that helped me understand my mom as best as I ever have, and the decision she made one fateful summer to wait. In a world without phones, email, or text messages, she waited an eternity to be relentlessly with him. Continue reading
New Tagania 